Predicting future flow: Building better models of glacier and ice sheet flow
Dr Ruanui Nicholson, from Waipapa Taumata Rau the University of Auckland, will work with a team of computational mathematicians to build models that more accurately simulate how glaciers and ice sheets move. This research will help us prepare for the effects of rising oceans
Published on 7 Whiringa-ā-rangi November 2024
Ice flowing from ice sheets and glaciers into the ocean is a central contributor to sea level rise. Being able to model ice flow accurately is therefore crucial for predicting future sea level rise and resulting flooding. Generating accurate models of ice flow, however, is far from trivial. The data that feeds into our predictions of ice flow usually come from overhead satellite or aircraft measurements, which tell us about what is happening on the top surface of the ice but little about what is happening beneath. This leads to incomplete or missing data on some of the most important determinants of ice flow – for example, the shape and texture of underlying rock. Existing models do a poor job of estimating these features and how they influence ice movement.
Dr Nicholson has been awarded a Marsden Fund Fast-Start grant to develop new, accurate, and computationally efficient approaches to simultaneously model surfaces beneath the ice and their impacts on ice flow. Unlike existing approaches, the new methods will incorporate sources of uncertainty like the heat flux and thermal conductivity of ice. The models developed should be able to predict ice flow with greater accuracy and use less computing time and power than existing models.
Sea-level rise is a global concern but is a particular threat to countries with low-lying coastal towns like Aotearoa New Zealand. Giving these communities certainty around sea-level rise will allow for better future-focused planning, and informed management of social and economic investments in areas such as tourism and fisheries.