New Zealand is strongly dependent upon international connections. The way other countries respond to climate change will influence New Zealand’s international trade relationships, and potentially migration patterns.
Four key risks of relevance to New Zealand and its international connections are:
- All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilization, and price stability.
- Climate change over the 21st century is projected to increase displacement of people.
- Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and intergroup violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.
- The impacts of climate change on the critical infrastructure and territorial integrity of many states are expected to influence national security policies.
While New Zealand agriculture could benefit from increasing global commodity prices in the long term, there are many negatives.
We gain significant revenue from long-haul tourism which could be reduced if the acceptability of long‑haul travel, and costs of fossil fuels, are affected by climate change.
- Global patterns of impacts in recent decades attributed to climate change
- Summary over a large number of studies of projected changes in major crop yields relative to the late 20th century, due to climate change over the 21st century, including projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined
- Climate change is expected to affect New Zealand agriculture in multiple ways, both through direct and indirect impacts
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- What climate trends will have international impacts for New Zealand?
- What is already happening?
- What might the future hold?
- What are the implications?
- Key knowledge gaps